Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, marking the second rate cut since June 2023, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On July 25, the Central Bank of Russia announced a reduction of the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, which was anticipated by the market [1]. - This decision follows a previous rate cut in June, where the rate was reduced by 100 basis points [5]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Central Bank's statement indicated that inflation pressures are decreasing faster than expected, with the seasonally adjusted annualized price growth rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, and core inflation falling from 8.8% to 4.5% [4]. - The bank projects inflation to decline to 6.0% - 7.0% by 2025 and return to the target level of 4.0% in 2026 [4]. - Despite the downward trend in inflation, long-term inflation expectations remain high, posing a risk to sustainable inflation reduction [4]. External Environment and Economic Predictions - The Central Bank has revised its oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026 down to $55 per barrel, citing trade frictions among major economies and increased supply from OPEC+ [4]. - Consequently, the bank has also slightly lowered its forecasts for exports and current account surplus for the next two years [4]. Currency and Monetary Policy - The statement highlighted that the ruble's exchange rate is influenced by both current account flows and capital account factors, with high interest rates maintaining the attractiveness of ruble assets [5]. - The Central Bank aims to ensure that inflation sustainably returns to 4% by maintaining a tight monetary policy when necessary [5]. Future Rate Expectations - Analysts predict that the Central Bank will continue to gradually lower the benchmark interest rate by 100 to 200 basis points at each policy meeting, targeting a rate of 14% by the end of the year [6].
突发!降息200个基点
中国基金报·2025-07-26 04:59