超420只债基年内亏损！债市调整何时休？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments recently, leading to a majority of bond funds reporting negative performance, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance of Bond Funds - In July, over half of bond funds reported negative performance, with notable declines in funds like Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Interest Rate Bond and Debon Ruiyu Interest Rate Bond, which saw net value declines exceeding 1.5% [2][10]. - The number of bond funds with year-to-date net value losses has increased to 426 [2]. Investor Reactions - Due to the pressure on net values, some bond fund holders have opted to redeem their investments, raising concerns about when the current bond market adjustment will stabilize [3][9]. - Investors have expressed worries about potential large-scale withdrawals similar to those seen at the end of 2022, when the long-term pure bond fund index experienced over 1% decline [9]. Market Dynamics - The recent bond market adjustment has been characterized by structural changes, with long-term interest rate bonds and certain credit bonds experiencing the most significant declines [6][12]. - The rise in risk appetite due to the performance of stocks and commodities has put additional pressure on the bond market [7][8]. Fund Flows and ETF Activity - On July 24, there was a net outflow of 656 million yuan from bond ETFs, breaking a streak of continuous net inflows [10][11]. - The bond ETF market has seen significant growth, with the total scale surpassing 500 billion yuan for the first time in July [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the current volatility, some analysts believe that the bond market is not at a turning point towards bearish trends and that adjustments present opportunities for investment [15][16]. - The internal logic supporting a bullish outlook for bonds remains strong, driven by weakening financing demand and debt leverage, alongside a potential for monetary policy easing [16].