证券时报·2025-07-27 12:32Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector in A-shares is experiencing significant growth, with the brokerage index rising over 25% since April 8, and many brokerages reporting substantial increases in net profit for the first half of the year, driven by a recovering capital market and favorable policies [1][2][3][8]. Performance Summary - At least 28 listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with most reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%, and some large brokerages, such as Shenwan Hongyuan and Guotai Junan, expecting over 100% growth [2][5][6]. - The overall increase in brokerage performance is attributed to the active trading environment in the capital market, which has significantly boosted self-operated investment income and brokerage fee income [8][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - Fundamental Support: The active trading environment is expected to continue benefiting brokerage performance, with most brokerages forecasting net profit growth of over 50% for the second half of the year [3][13]. - Capital Support: The allocation of equity funds to non-bank financials has increased slightly, indicating potential for further investment in brokerages [14]. - Policy Support: Recent policy changes encourage brokerages to focus on improving return on equity (ROE), which may enhance their performance [15]. - Valuation Levels: Most brokerages have a price-to-book ratio just above 1, with only about 10 listed brokerages exceeding a ratio of 2, suggesting room for valuation growth [16]. Dividend Yield and Valuation - Several brokerages offer dividend yields above 2%, which is higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds, making them attractive for income-focused investors [1][16][18].