3600点关键时刻！最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market remains attractive, with opportunities in "anti-involution," domestic demand recovery, and new productivity directions as the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the 3600-point mark for the first time since October 2024 [2][3]. Market Valuation and Risk-Return Analysis - Current market valuations are approaching historical averages, with equity assets still presenting a favorable risk-return profile compared to bonds due to low interest rates [16][13]. - The overall risk-return ratio is considered reasonable, with certain sectors like banking showing low price-to-book ratios and high dividend yields, making them attractive in the current environment [17][18]. - The market is expected to continue a trend of cautious optimism, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and policy measures [9][22]. Investment Directions - Key investment themes include high-dividend stocks, consumer staples, and pharmaceutical leaders, which are expected to benefit from policy support and economic recovery [11][30]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to shift industries from price competition to high-quality development, benefiting midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials [35]. - The focus on new productivity areas such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing reflects China's strengths in research and engineering [35][31]. Asset Allocation Strategies - A clear strategy for increasing equity asset allocation is recommended, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where equities are more attractive than bonds [24][26]. - Investors are advised to consider a "barbell" strategy, balancing low-volatility, high-dividend assets with higher-growth, more volatile investments [26][37]. - Dynamic asset allocation frameworks are suggested to adjust equity and bond positions based on market conditions and risk premiums [27][29]. Sector-Specific Insights - The insurance sector is viewed positively due to potential recovery from previous pessimistic pricing, while the healthcare sector is expected to benefit from demographic trends and policy improvements [32][30]. - Gold remains a long-term investment consideration despite short-term pressures, as it serves as a hedge against uncertainty [33][30]. - The focus on cyclical recovery suggests that sectors like steel, cement, and consumer goods may see renewed interest as economic conditions improve [21][30].