「摩根士丹利」最新人形机器人研报：主流价值链公司梳理和趋势分析（附报告）

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that the humanoid robot market in China will see widespread adoption in the second half of 2025, with China increasingly closing the gap with the US and other countries in this sector [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in market logic from "speculative expectations" to "focusing on implementation," emphasizing that commercial value verification is crucial for supporting valuations [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the Chinese robotics industry experienced a 37% surge driven by aggressive capacity targets, technological breakthroughs, and government support, but saw a 6% pullback from March to July due to target adjustments and a lack of significant breakthroughs [6]. Commercialization Trends - The report anticipates a gradual increase in orders for humanoid robots in the second half of the year, with significant contracts already awarded, such as a 124 million yuan contract from China Mobile for full-size humanoid robots [8]. - Continuous product launches and innovations in hardware and software are expected to act as catalysts for market growth, with advancements in new actuator designs and the introduction of the Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies 45 companies in the humanoid robot value chain, including 3 in brain technology, 31 in body components, and 11 integrators, reflecting a growing ecosystem [11]. - The competition among humanoid robot startups is intensifying, with many companies struggling to achieve sustainable commercial success, leading to concerns about inflated valuations and potential market corrections [14][19]. Technological Developments - The report notes that breakthroughs in AI and large model technologies are driving the humanoid intelligence wave, with software algorithm advancements being key to enhancing robot functionality and application scenarios [17]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on self-developed foundational models, with the VLA model becoming a mainstream approach in the field of embodied intelligence [18]. Investment Opportunities - The report outlines potential investment opportunities in leading humanoid robot companies, highlighting their market capitalizations and recent performance, indicating a mixed outlook for future growth [12].