下半年扩内需仍紧迫，“这与人民币汇率息息相关”

Core Viewpoint - China's economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding the annual growth target, but the outlook for the second half remains cautious due to pressures from tariffs, real estate, and limited fiscal capacity [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies to achieve the annual economic growth target, given the marginal weakening of growth momentum in Q2 compared to Q1 [3][4]. - It suggests that the government should utilize public budget funds and consider issuing an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to support fiscal spending [4]. - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal projects as a critical area for expanding domestic demand, especially as the effectiveness of existing policies like "trade-in" diminishes over time [4][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The report recommends lowering policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards, which is essential for restoring balance between private sector savings and investments [4][5]. - It notes that the current global environment, with many developed countries in a rate-cutting cycle, provides a favorable backdrop for such monetary easing [4]. Group 3: Currency Valuation and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The report discusses the depreciation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate by over 15% since 2022, attributing this to persistent domestic demand shortages [7][8]. - It emphasizes that the comparison of expected returns between RMB assets and foreign exchange assets is crucial for determining the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [8]. - The report suggests that timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies are necessary to achieve a reasonable valuation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate [8][9]. Group 4: Stablecoin Development and Internationalization of RMB - The report outlines the structural changes in the RMB exchange rate, including a shift in expectations and a changing interest rate environment, which could support the internationalization of the RMB [11]. - It discusses the potential pathways for advancing RMB stablecoin trials, emphasizing the need for onshore stablecoins due to the lack of application scenarios for offshore stablecoins [12]. - The report highlights the importance of strict regulation in the development of RMB stablecoins to avoid missing critical opportunities in the evolving financial landscape [12].