启明创投于WAIC 2025再发AI十大展望：围绕基础模型、AI应用、具身智能等

Core Viewpoint - Qiming Venture Partners is recognized as one of the earliest and most comprehensive investment institutions in the AI sector in China, having invested in over 100 AI projects, covering the entire AI industry chain and promoting the rise of several benchmark enterprises in the field [2]. Group 1: AI Models - In the next 12-24 months, a context window of 2 million tokens will become standard for top AI models, with more refined and intelligent context engineering driving the development of AI models and applications [4]. - A universal video model is expected to emerge within 12-24 months, capable of handling generation, reasoning, and task understanding in video modalities, thus innovating video content generation and interaction [6]. Group 2: AI Agents - In the next 12-24 months, the form of AI agents will transition from "tool assistance" to "task undertaking," with the first true "AI employees" entering enterprises, participating widely in core processes such as customer service, sales, operations, and R&D, thus shifting from cost tools to value creation [8]. - Multi-modal agents will increasingly become practical, integrating visual, auditory, and sensor inputs to perform complex reasoning, tool invocation, and task execution, achieving breakthroughs in industries such as healthcare, finance, and law [9]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure - In the AI chip sector, more "nationally established" and "nationally produced" GPUs will begin mass delivery, while innovative new-generation AI cloud chips focusing on 3D DRAM stacking and integrated computing will emerge in the market [11]. - In the next 12-24 months, token consumption will increase by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, with cluster inference optimization, terminal inference optimization, and soft-hard collaborative inference optimization becoming core technologies for reducing token costs on the AI infrastructure side [12]. Group 4: AI Applications - The paradigm shift in AI interaction will accelerate in the next two years, driven by a decrease in user reliance on mobile screens and the rising importance of natural interaction methods like voice, leading to the birth of AI-native super applications [14]. - The potential for AI applications in vertical scenarios is immense, with more startups leveraging industry insights to deeply engage in niche areas and rapidly achieve product-market fit, adopting a "Go Narrow and Deep" strategy to differentiate from larger companies [15]. - The AI BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) model is expected to achieve commercial breakthroughs in the next 12-24 months, transitioning from "delivery tools" to "delivery results," and expanding rapidly in standardized industries such as finance, customer service, marketing, and e-commerce through a "pay-per-result" approach [15]. Group 5: Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligent robots will first achieve large-scale deployment in scenarios such as picking, transporting, and assembling, accumulating a wealth of first-person perspective data and tactile operation data, thereby constructing a closed-loop flywheel of "model - ontology - scene data," which will drive model capability iteration and ultimately promote the large-scale landing of general-purpose robots [17].