暑期档，危险了

Core Viewpoint - The summer box office in China has significantly declined, with total revenue reaching only 51.61 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 26% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the future of the film industry and its major release periods [3][5][6]. Box Office Performance - The summer box office has seen a total of 51.61 billion yuan, down from 69.70 billion yuan last year, marking a decline of 25.95% [6][12]. - The current summer box office performance is even lower than the special periods of 2021 and 2022, indicating a troubling trend for the industry [6][12]. - The summer box office is projected to fall short of the 116 billion yuan achieved in 2024, with the current trajectory suggesting that even daily box office earnings exceeding 100 million yuan will not suffice to catch up [6][18]. Film Releases and Reception - Despite the release of numerous films from both established and emerging directors, many have underperformed at the box office, leading to disappointing results [9][12]. - Notable films such as "酱园弄·悬案" and "恶意" are projected to earn only 3.75 billion yuan and 2.60 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a broader trend of box office failures among anticipated releases [9][12]. - The film "南京照相馆" has exceeded expectations, earning 3.78 billion yuan within two days of release, with a projected total of 16.24 billion yuan [9][12]. Industry Implications - The decline in box office revenue is adversely affecting cinema companies, with China Film (600977.SH) experiencing a drop in both revenue and profit last year, although it has seen some recovery this summer [12][13]. - The overall performance of the summer box office has led to mixed results for companies involved in film production and distribution, with some films failing to meet expectations [12][13]. - The potential for a vicious cycle is emerging, where declining box office performance leads to a withdrawal of quality films from the summer period, further diminishing its appeal and audience turnout [21][22]. Future Outlook - The summer box office's ability to attract quality films is crucial for its success, as seen in previous years when standout films drove audience engagement [20]. - If quality films continue to shift to the more lucrative Spring Festival period, the summer box office may become a dumping ground for lower-quality films, reinforcing negative perceptions among audiences [21][22]. - The overall health of the Chinese film market may hinge on the performance of key release periods, with the Spring Festival remaining the only consistently strong period amidst declining performance in others [18][22].