“黑色星期一”！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the futures market, particularly focusing on the significant declines in various commodity prices, including coking coal, glass, and soda ash, amidst a broader market downturn [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Adjustments - Multiple futures contracts, including coking coal, glass, and soda ash, experienced substantial declines, with coking coal dropping over 11% and glass over 8% during the night trading session [1][2]. - By the afternoon of July 28, major futures contracts for coking coal, glass, soda ash, industrial silicon, coke, and lithium carbonate all closed at their daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Spot Market Trends - The spot market is also reflecting a downturn, with prices for steel and coke showing signs of cooling. For instance, the price of Tangshan's ordinary square billet fell by 30 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm rebar in 31 major cities decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3421 yuan/ton [2]. - A coal and coke enterprise in Shanxi reported a cautious trading atmosphere in the spot market, with rising instances of auction price declines and increased failure rates [2]. Group 3: Coal Price Dynamics - Despite the rapid fluctuations in the futures market, the overall price increases in the spot market have lagged. National statistics indicate that coal prices rose in mid-July, with coking coal prices reaching 1150 yuan/ton, up 7.0% from the previous period [3]. - The supply-side changes are identified as the most critical variable affecting coal prices in the second half of the year, with expectations of more rational supply releases and reduced safety hazards in coal production [4]. Group 4: External Influences and Future Outlook - External factors, such as the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, are expected to amplify market volatility, impacting the overall valuation of commodities [4]. - The industry outlook suggests that if supply pressures ease and demand improves, prices may stabilize and recover. However, persistent tight macroeconomic conditions and new supply-side disruptions could lead to continued downward price pressures [5][6].