暑期档，危险了

Core Viewpoint - The summer box office in China has seen a significant decline, with total earnings reaching only 51.61 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 26% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the future of the film industry in the country [2][3][20]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - The summer box office has only generated 51.61 billion yuan so far, down from 69.70 billion yuan last year, marking a decline of 25.95% [2]. - The current summer box office performance is even lower than the special periods of 2021 and 2022 [3]. - If the box office continues to decline, it may lead to a lack of confidence among film producers regarding the summer season, potentially pushing many films to the more lucrative Spring Festival period [20]. Group 2: Film Releases and Reception - Despite the release of numerous films from both established and new directors, many have failed to perform well at the box office, such as "酱园弄·悬案" with a predicted box office of only 3.75 billion yuan [5]. - New directors who previously achieved high box office numbers have also faced setbacks, with films like "恶意" and "无名之辈：否极泰来" expected to earn only 2.60 billion yuan and 0.52 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The animated film "聊斋·兰若寺," which previously garnered 18 billion yuan, is now projected to earn only 3.15 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Impact on Companies - China Film (600977.SH) has seen a decline in revenue and profit last year but is expected to recover slightly this summer due to its involvement in "南京照相馆," which is performing well [10]. - Companies like欢喜传媒, which produced "酱园弄·悬案," are likely to face significant losses, while光线传媒's "花漾少女杀人事件" is projected to earn only 0.29 billion yuan, which has a minimal impact on its overall performance [11][12]. - The remaining films that could potentially perform well are produced by non-traditional major companies, indicating a shift in the industry landscape [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer box office's core competitiveness relies on the continuous supply of diverse and high-quality films, which is crucial for driving overall box office performance [20]. - If high-quality films continue to migrate to the Spring Festival, the summer season may become a dumping ground for lower-quality films, leading to a negative perception among audiences [20]. - This could create a vicious cycle of declining box office performance, leading to fewer quality films, further diminishing the appeal of the summer season [20].