特朗普关税关键一周！“关税谈判对投资不利的迹象越来越明显”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's trade protectionism and tariffs on global trade and investment, highlighting the increasing uncertainty and potential economic repercussions for various industries and companies [1][2][10]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Economy - The overall tariff level in the U.S. has reached its highest since the 1930s, approximately six times higher than when the Trump administration took office, with an average tariff of just under 13.5% [1]. - By the end of 2027, the global economic impact of these tariffs is projected to reach $2 trillion, significantly higher than pre-trade war levels [2]. - The uncertainty caused by tariffs is expected to delay investment decisions, with companies adopting a wait-and-see approach until clarity on trade policies is achieved [2][10]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - Major U.S. corporations like General Motors, Dow, and Tesla have experienced earnings erosion due to tariffs, although significant inflation impacts have not yet materialized [4]. - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is predicted to slow to around 1%, with non-residential investment contributing minimally to economic growth [8][9]. - The decline in oil prices from $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has helped mitigate inflation, despite the ongoing tariff challenges [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - Companies reliant on the U.S. market, such as NatureSweet Tomatoes, are facing significant challenges due to new tariffs on imports from Mexico, which have stalled expansion plans [11][12]. - The automotive industry, particularly in Japan, is also feeling the strain from tariffs, with a notable 27% drop in car shipments to the U.S. in June [15]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is leading to a broader decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), with a projected decrease in global FDI following an 11% drop in 2024 [13][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a prolonged period of trade stagnation and investment fatigue is highlighted, with companies likely to delay restructuring decisions due to unclear policy directions [16]. - The overall economic indicators related to trade are expected to show contraction in both growth and volume this year [16].