券商中国·2025-07-29 09:46Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, particularly in the computing power hardware sector, driven by robust demand from the Chinese market and significant orders from Nvidia to TSMC for H20 chips [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, A-share indices experienced a notable rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.86% and surpassing the 2400-point mark, supported by strong performances in the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and steel sectors [1]. - The computing power hardware sector saw a significant surge, with the optical module (CPO) sector's overall increase exceeding 3%, and the Wind optical module index rising over 5% [3]. Group 2: Nvidia's Orders and Market Demand - Nvidia's recent decision to place an emergency order for 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC was influenced by unexpectedly strong demand from the Chinese market, prompting a shift from relying solely on existing inventory [4][7]. - Nvidia's current inventory of H20 chips is estimated at 600,000 to 700,000 units, and this new order will help replenish stock as the company anticipates selling approximately 1 million H20 chips in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Company Earnings Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 3.6 billion to 4.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57%, driven by strong capital expenditure growth and high-end optical module sales [10]. - New Yisheng forecasts a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the same period, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47%, attributed to ongoing investments in AI-related computing power [11]. - Other companies like Huagong Technology and Guangxun Technology also project significant profit increases, with expected growth rates of 42.43% to 52.03% and 55% to 95%, respectively [12]. Group 4: Industry Growth Drivers - The optical module market is projected to experience substantial growth, with Goldman Sachs raising its sales forecasts for 800G optical transceiver modules to 19.9 million and 33.5 million units for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting increases of 10% and 58% [8]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is expected to reach $10 billion in 2024, with a nearly 100% year-on-year increase, and maintain a growth rate of around 50% in 2025 [13]. - The demand for high-performance optical modules is primarily driven by AI data centers, with approximately 80% of market demand stemming from this sector [13].