以历史数据为锚，如何看待本轮债基的调整？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bond market, emphasizing that despite short-term fluctuations, bond funds remain a viable long-term investment option due to their inherent income-generating characteristics and historical performance trends [2][36]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The bond market has experienced a notable adjustment due to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite driven by optimistic policy expectations and asset rotation effects [6][19]. - The recent rise in commodity prices and stock market strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, has diluted the appeal of fixed-income products [7][19]. - A temporary tightening of liquidity conditions, highlighted by the central bank's net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, has contributed to the upward pressure on bond yields [13][19]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that the bond market has undergone several "stress tests," with each adjustment reflecting a revaluation of economic expectations, policy rhythms, and trading structures [21][28]. - The article outlines past significant adjustments, such as the "money shortage" in 2013 and the "debt disaster" in 2016, demonstrating that the bond market has consistently recovered from downturns [24][25][26]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term volatility is expected, the long-term trend remains favorable for bond investments, characterized by a "bullish long, bearish short" pattern [29][34]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - The bond market's fundamental appeal lies in its fixed income nature, which provides a safety net against capital loss, allowing for potential recovery over time [38][39]. - Data shows that even during challenging periods, such as 2013 and 2018, bond indices have achieved positive returns, reinforcing their role as a defensive investment choice [44][46]. - The article concludes that despite short-term fluctuations, the bond market is positioned favorably for long-term investment, serving as a crucial component of diversified portfolios [51][50].