突发！债市，全线下跌

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure as the A-share market rises above 3600 points, with significant declines in government bond futures and yields across various maturities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - On July 29, government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.78% and the 10-year main contract down 0.25% [2][5]. - Since early July, the 30-year government bond futures have seen a cumulative decline of over 2%, while the 10-year futures have dropped nearly 1% [5]. - Major interest rates on bonds have generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 3.05 basis points to 1.9535% [6]. Group 2: Factors Affecting the Bond Market - The bond market's weakness is attributed to strong performance in equity and commodity markets, tightening liquidity, and expectations for macroeconomic policy changes [3][4][8]. - The "anti-involution" narrative has led to rising inflation expectations, challenging the previous low-demand, low-inflation logic that supported the bond market [9][10]. - The recent tightening of liquidity has increased the sensitivity of trading institutions to negative news, amplifying market volatility [10][12]. Group 3: Redemption Pressure on Bond Funds - There is a rising pressure for redemptions in bond funds, with concerns that this could lead to significant declines similar to those seen at the end of 2022 [14][15]. - Over the past week, more than ten funds have had to adjust their net asset values due to large redemptions [15][16]. - Despite the recent adjustments in bond fund net values, the overall scale of bond ETFs has been increasing, reaching over 500 billion yuan by July 18 [18][19]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current redemption pressures are more about proactive profit-taking rather than a panic sell-off, indicating that the overall selling scale remains manageable [21]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with key factors to watch including the stabilization of risk assets and potential new policies from the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [22].