Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of regulatory limits on dividend realization rates in the insurance industry, highlighting the differences in calculation methods and the influence of mortality surplus on these rates [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Background and Dividend Realization Rates - Recent regulations require insurance companies with a rating of 1-3 or those established for less than three years to justify any proposed dividend levels exceeding the average financial return of 3.2% over the past three years [3]. - The theoretical upper limit for this year's realization rate is calculated to be 114%, based on the formula for dividend realization rate [3]. - The realization rate is defined as the actual distributed dividend amount divided by the projected benefit amount, with the denominator standardized to include only the interest spread [3]. Group 2: Calculation Methods of Dividend Realization Rates - Two types of dividend realization rates are defined: - "Two Surplus Dividend Realization Rate," which includes both interest spread and mortality surplus in the numerator. - "Interest Spread Dividend Realization Rate," which includes only the interest spread [4]. - The current horizontal comparison of dividend realization rates among major insurance companies shows a distortion, as the two surplus realization rates tend to be higher under the same actual dividend levels [5]. Group 3: Characteristics and Implications of Two Surplus Dividend Realization Rates - The two surplus realization rates exhibit two main characteristics: the mortality surplus portion's contribution to the realization rate decreases over the policy years, and there is significant variability in realization rates among different policies of the same product [6]. - In the early policy years, the realization rates can appear inflated due to the relatively small contribution of interest spread, which amplifies the impact of mortality surplus [10][11]. - The two surplus realization rate can only represent an "average" or a specific percentile of the policyholder group, leading to potential misinterpretation for individual policies [13][15]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Capability and Realization Rates - The article emphasizes that the long-term investment capability of insurance companies is crucial for sustaining dividend levels, and consumers should focus on the calculation methods and long-term perspectives of realization rates rather than short-term figures [18]. - It is recommended that insurance companies maintain transparency in disclosing the differences in individual policy realization rates to help customers understand the actual performance of their policies [15].
【独家拆解】揭开分红实现率数字看背后本质:死差红利如何影响你的判断?
13个精算师·2025-07-29 12:32