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IMF:大幅调高中国今年经济增速预期
第一财经·2025-07-30 02:34

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][4]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, which are increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the April WEO predictions [1][4]. - Advanced economies are expected to grow at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, while the United States is projected to grow at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 [2][8]. - Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow at 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with China's growth rate adjusted to 4.8% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026 [7][8]. Inflation Expectations - The IMF anticipates global inflation rates to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with significant disparities among different economies [1][10]. - U.S. inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is projected to be more moderate [10][12]. Trade Volume and Policy Implications - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points due to increased trade policy uncertainty [5]. - The organization emphasizes the need for global policies to ease tensions, maintain price and financial stability, and implement necessary structural reforms to restore confidence and sustainability [1][4].