中银基金郑宁：在不确定性中寻找高性价比，港股创新药价值待重估

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with innovative drugs being a relatively favorable investment direction due to continuous better-than-expected fundamentals and reasonable valuations [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on "high cost-performance under uncertainty," aiming to maximize returns by strengthening growth factors at the bottom and gradually switching to value factors at the top [1][2]. - The core of portfolio construction is to identify the maximum return space corresponding to each risk, with a natural contrarian characteristic [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to be the main engine driving market trends from 2025 to 2026, supported by strong performance growth and recovery in related sectors [4]. - The potential profit from China's innovative drug sector is estimated to be between 600 billion to 700 billion yuan, with future profits potentially reaching 6 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - China's innovative drug sector has structural advantages, including efficiency in target discovery, early research, and clinical recruitment, which shortens trial cycles and creates a positive feedback loop [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Focus - The Hong Kong market for innovative drugs is receiving increased attention, with a focus on undervalued leading companies and a favorable risk-reward ratio compared to A-shares [6]. - The shift in attitude from overseas investors towards the Hong Kong market is seen as a significant opportunity, with multinational pharmaceutical companies already investing heavily in Chinese innovative drugs [6].