一则传闻刺激，多晶硅期货触及涨停！警惕行情过热风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition rumors in the photovoltaic industry have significantly stimulated the polysilicon market, leading to a notable price increase and heightened market optimism [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 30, the main polysilicon futures contract hit the limit up, closing with an increase of 8.87%, with a trading volume increase of 22,800 contracts and a net inflow of 1.223 billion yuan [1][4]. - The market sentiment remains bullish despite the China Photovoltaic Association's denial of the acquisition rumors, which did not provide specific details [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The polysilicon sector is undergoing a severe adjustment since 2025, with high levels of production capacity and inventory posing significant challenges [7][8]. - The domestic polysilicon inventory has exceeded 300,000 tons, reaching a historical high, with some companies experiencing inventory turnover days exceeding 90 days [8]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive industry consolidation and the elimination of outdated production capacity, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including photovoltaics [6][9]. - The current market dynamics indicate a potential improvement in the polysilicon sector, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of price increases driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental demand [12][11].