今晚还不降息？美联储恐面临逾30年来最嘹亮“反对声”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1][2] Group 1: External Pressures - President Trump has been vocally critical of the Federal Reserve, questioning its spending on renovations and pressuring for rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs [1] - The White House's proximity to the Federal Reserve has intensified the scrutiny and criticism directed at Chairman Powell [2] Group 2: Internal Dissent - There is a possibility that multiple Federal Reserve governors may vote against the decision for the first time in over 30 years, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2] - Analysts predict that governors Waller and Bowman may cast dissenting votes due to concerns over high interest rates amid rising employment risks [7][8] Group 3: Upcoming Meeting Highlights - Key changes in the Federal Reserve's statement are anticipated, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty, which may remain at a high level [4][5] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, with a potential downgrade from "solid" to "moderate" growth [6] Group 4: Rate Cut Signals - The likelihood of Powell signaling a September rate cut during the meeting is considered low, but investors will look for clues during his press conference [9][10] - Current market pricing suggests a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising these expectations before key economic data is released [12] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Impacts - Powell may face questions regarding the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, as uncertainty continues to affect business decisions [14][15] - The delayed implementation of tariffs is expected to have a gradual impact on prices, with businesses currently absorbing some of the costs [15] Group 6: Political Pressures - Powell is likely to be questioned about the influence of political pressures on monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of recent scrutiny from the Trump administration [16][17] - The potential for an internal review of the Federal Reserve's non-monetary policy functions has been suggested, indicating a need for clarity on the institution's mission [17]