鲍威尔讲话打压降息预期，黄金跳水，纽约铜大跌18%

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve's policy statement indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, which may provide grounds for future rate cuts if the trend continues [1]. - The recent meeting saw two Federal Reserve governors voting against the decision to maintain rates, highlighting the influence of external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who has called for rate cuts [1][2]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September, emphasizing the need for more economic information before making a decision [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Experts predict that the Federal Reserve may not lower rates until December, with expectations that inflation will rise and economic growth will slow down, leading to a more cautious approach [6]. - The Chicago Fed's index measuring the overall financial environment has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, indicating a relatively loose financial environment despite the high rates [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's statements, the probability of a rate cut in September decreased from approximately 65% to just below 50% [4]. - Gold prices fell over 1.5%, dropping below $3280 per ounce, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with significant declines in precious metal companies [8][9]. - The copper market reacted negatively to President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, leading to an 18% drop in copper prices [16].