全国性生育补贴来了，但为什么大家觉得不够？

Core Viewpoint - The newly implemented national child-rearing subsidy policy aims to encourage childbirth in response to declining birth rates, with a focus on providing financial support to families with children under three years old [1][11][14]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - Starting from January 2023, families with children under three years old will receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child, applicable to first, second, and third children [1][11]. - Children born between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2024, are eligible for retroactive subsidies, with amounts increasing based on the birth month [2][3]. - The total number of newborns in China from 2022 to 2024 is estimated to be around 28.12 million, with families expressing that this group of children is catching the "last train" for subsidies [4][6]. Group 2: Cost of Raising Children - The total cost of raising a child from birth to 17 years is approximately 538,312 yuan, while the annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan represents only about 10% of this total cost [8][10]. - The breakdown of costs shows that raising a child incurs significant expenses, with the largest portion (45.15%) occurring between ages 6-14 [10]. Group 3: Policy Implications and Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that the subsidy amount is too low and the duration too short to significantly impact birth rates, recommending a minimum of 12,000 yuan per year per child [21][26]. - The policy is seen as a milestone in China's approach to population growth, contrasting with previous penalties for exceeding birth limits [13][14]. - The universal nature of the subsidy is highlighted, as it applies equally to all children regardless of birth order, unlike some local policies [14]. Group 4: Future Expectations and Sustainability - There are concerns about the sustainability of the subsidy, with estimates suggesting that the total annual cost could reach 1.2 to 1.3 trillion yuan, which is manageable within the national budget [29][31]. - Experts advocate for additional measures to support families, such as free preschool education and tax incentives, to further alleviate the financial burden of raising children [27][34]. - The need for a comprehensive social security system and reduced living costs is emphasized as essential for improving birth rates [34][36].