美国不平等协议产生三大风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent trade agreements between the U.S. and various countries, highlighting a shift from rule-based trade to power-based trade, with the EU accepting what is termed an "unequal agreement" [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariff Changes - The EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products, including a 10% tariff on automobiles, marking a significant shift in trade policy [2]. - In addition to the EU, countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have also agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs on U.S. products, with Indonesia planning to remove tariffs on 99% of U.S. goods [2]. - The U.S. plans to impose reciprocal tariffs of 15% on EU products and 19% on Indonesian products, indicating that the agreements are favorable to the U.S. [2][3]. Group 2: Risks to Global Trade - The collapse of the transparent World Trade Organization (WTO) system is a significant risk, as the EU's actions violate the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) principle, which has been a cornerstone of international trade since 1948 [2][3]. - The potential damage to emerging and developing countries' international trade is highlighted, as unequal rules could hinder their market access despite improvements in competitiveness [3]. - The fragmentation of global trade is another risk, as countries like India and Brazil resist entering unequal agreements with the U.S., while China takes countermeasures against U.S. policies [3][4]. Group 3: The Shift in Global Economic Order - The article notes a division in the global economy into blocs led by the U.S. and its allies, and a separate group centered around China, which could lead to increased geopolitical tensions [4]. - The abandonment of the MFN principle in U.S.-EU agreements is seen as a significant loophole that undermines the establishment of future international rules, particularly in areas like climate change [4]. - The commentary from former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard emphasizes the dangers of a return to a "jungle law" scenario, where the strong dominate the weak, threatening global peace and stability [4].