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反内卷改善企业预期!短期因素造成制造业PMI环比微降
证券时报·2025-07-31 05:47

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].