纽约铜价一日暴跌20%！特朗普50%关税生变引发全球铜市巨震

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. government's new tariff policy on copper imports, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices and a restructuring of the global copper supply chain [1][2][3]. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while exempting refined cathode copper and scrap copper [2][4]. - This targeted approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, causing a panic sell-off among copper bulls [2][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures plummeted to $4.33 per pound, a 21% drop from the previous close [1][2]. - The market had previously anticipated a comprehensive tariff, leading to a surge in U.S. copper imports, which are expected to reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons [10]. Inventory Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventory surged to 250,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February [9]. - In contrast, LME copper inventory decreased by over 64% during the same period, highlighting a significant shift in global copper stock dynamics [9]. Supply Chain Disruption - The tariff policy is expected to disrupt the global copper supply chain, with potential shifts in sourcing from major copper-exporting countries like Chile towards Asian and European markets [12]. - The high tariffs may increase costs in sectors such as automotive and renewable energy, prompting companies to seek domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [12][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the excess copper flowing into the U.S. will eventually return to the global market, exerting downward pressure on copper prices [10]. - The long-term impact of the tariff on U.S. copper demand remains uncertain, particularly in light of recession fears that could further affect consumption [13].