铜关税“乌龙”引发套利交易崩溃

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, contrary to market expectations that it would target refined copper itself [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, 2025, based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1]. - Refined copper and copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, and scrap copper are explicitly excluded from the tariff [1][3]. - The announcement led to a significant drop in CME copper futures prices, which fell over 20% on the day of the announcement [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, CME warehouse inventories surged to 232,195 tons, the highest level since 2004, due to a rush of refined copper imports before the tariff took effect [2]. - The price premium of CME copper futures over LME prices narrowed significantly, from nearly $1,200 per ton to less than $150 per ton [1][3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Structural Challenges - The influx of refined copper has created a supply-demand mismatch, raising concerns about whether U.S. smelting and processing capacities can handle the increased resources [5]. - From 2027, a policy mandates that 25% of domestic copper concentrates and recycled copper must be sold in the U.S., increasing to 40% within two years, which may exert structural pressure on the existing system [5]. - Analysts suggest that the physical supply chain will take months to rebalance, with the possibility of copper being re-exported from the U.S. being reassessed [6].