美国铜价大跌，投机资金误判特朗普关税

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exclusion of refined copper from the U.S. tariff list led to a significant drop in COMEX prices, as hedge funds sold off their positions anticipating losses [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, but refined copper was not included, minimizing the impact on domestic importers and processors [3][4]. - The COMEX price for refined copper fell sharply, with the main contract dropping 20% to approximately $4.503 per pound (around $9,900 per ton), aligning more closely with LME prices [4]. - Hedge funds had previously increased their long positions, expecting further price increases, but were forced to sell off as the tariff announcement contradicted their expectations [4][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies and Trading Strategies - Prior to the tariff announcement, there was a price gap of about $2,600 per ton between U.S. and international prices, which was expected to widen with the new tariffs [5]. - Traders had been engaging in "tariff trading," importing refined copper from countries like South Korea and Taiwan to sell at higher prices in the U.S., but the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs undermined this strategy [5]. - The increase in U.S. copper inventories has led to a situation where domestic prices are now lower than LME prices, reflecting the market's adjustment to the new tariff landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global copper market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with a reported excess of 272,000 tons from January to May [6]. - Concerns about China's economic outlook, as the largest consumer of copper, are contributing to downward pressure on demand [6].