【库存指数】2025年7月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为57.2%

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for July 2025 indicates a slight decline in the automotive market's overall health, with a warning index of 57.2%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month [2][3]. Inventory and Market Conditions - July marks a traditional off-season for the automotive market, influenced by the phased withdrawal of subsidy policies, reduced consumer financing rebates, and decreased promotional efforts from manufacturers. This has led to increased consumer hesitation, with 47.7% of dealers reporting a downward trend in the market, with declines exceeding 5% [3]. - Despite a demand pullback due to earlier sales surges, the market remains relatively active due to effective order digestion and summer tourism. However, extreme weather and manufacturers' summer breaks have contributed to a slight decrease in dealer inventory levels compared to the end of June [3]. - Dealers are facing challenges such as declining foot traffic, extended purchase decision cycles, and lower transaction rates, which are exacerbating inventory turnover and financial pressure [3]. Index Breakdown - In July, sub-indices for inventory, market demand, average daily sales, and employment all showed a month-on-month decline, while the operational status index increased [5]. - The national index stands at 57.2%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 60.5%, East at 59.8%, West at 52.9%, and South at 53.4% [6]. Brand Performance - The index for luxury and imported brands increased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands saw a decline [9]. Future Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to stabilize in August, with potential boosts from back-to-school purchasing and promotional events like the 818 shopping festival. Additionally, the government has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of subsidies to support trade-in policies, with a fourth batch expected in October [11]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to realistically assess market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence while focusing on cost reduction and efficiency [11].