关税重磅！A股调整何时结束？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective adjustment, but individual stocks are showing a mixed performance with sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, photovoltaic, and software leading the gains. Analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term upward trend despite short-term technical adjustments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices are undergoing a collective pullback, with a trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan. Despite this, individual stocks are predominantly rising, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine, photovoltaic, and software sectors [3][5]. - The recent adjustments are attributed to new U.S. tariff policies causing declines in the Asia-Pacific stock markets and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement extension [4][6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by the U.S. are raising concerns about potential economic slowdown and inflation, overshadowing previous optimism surrounding AI and large tech stocks [6][10]. - The 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs is set to end on August 12, which could lead to a temporary outflow of foreign capital if tariffs are reinstated. However, the market has partially priced in these expectations, and medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to domestic policy support [10][11]. Group 3: Adjustment Duration - Analysts suggest that the current adjustment phase may be a natural response to rapid price increases, with historical data indicating that significant adjustments often follow when indices reach certain thresholds, such as 3600 points [11][13]. - Historical patterns from previous bull markets in 2007 and 2015 show that significant adjustments occurred after reaching similar index levels, but ultimately led to new highs [13][14]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" trend, with expectations for a gradual transition to a more stable trading phase as the market digests short-term profit-taking [18][20]. - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that typically perform well in August, such as resources and military industries, with a particular emphasis on coal and petrochemical sectors in the first half of the month and larger-cap stocks in the latter half as earnings reports are released [21][25].