突然暴雷，美联储9月降息概率陡升

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July raises concerns about the labor market, prompting speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [3][5][6]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payroll increased by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [3]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, with job growth primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 positions [3]. - Job data for the previous two months was revised downwards, with June's jobs cut by 133,000 to 14,000, marking a near five-year low [4]. - The average monthly job growth from May to July dropped to approximately 35,000, the slowest pace since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. Economic Implications - The U.S. economy requires the creation of about 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population [4]. - Job openings fell from 7.7 million in June to 7.4 million, the lowest level in a year and the second-lowest since the pandemic began [4]. - Despite the decline in job openings, layoffs remain at historical lows, with a layoff rate of 1%, significantly lower than the average of 1.4% from 2010 to 2019 [4]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to stabilize long-term inflation expectations [5]. - The preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose by 0.3% in the previous month, the largest increase since February, with the year-on-year growth rate climbing from 2.4% to 2.6% [5]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, with an 82% probability priced in for the first cut [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the labor market continues to show signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve may opt for preemptive rate cuts, similar to the actions taken last year [6][8]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be crucial in confirming or alleviating concerns regarding the current employment data's weakness [8].