美联储政策转折点来了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition phase of monetary policy approaching a "turning point," indicating a complex interplay between hawkish and dovish stances within the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2][5]. - The meeting revealed internal dissent with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, highlighting increasing divisions within the FOMC [2][6]. - The PCE price index was reported at 2.7%, above the 2% target, while the GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was only 1.2%, significantly lower than the previous year's 2.5% [4][12]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, international gold prices fell to $3327 per ounce, while the dollar index rose to 99.82 [2][7]. - The market's perception of the Fed's stance was mixed, with some analysts interpreting Powell's comments as hawkish despite the dovish tone of the statement [7][10]. Economic Outlook and Predictions - Analysts predict that the Fed will remain cautious due to rising inflation, with potential rate cuts expected later in the year, particularly in December [10][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their impact on inflation may lead the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period [11][12]. - The latest employment data showed a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls, raising concerns about economic slowdown and increasing rate cut expectations [13]. Global Market Implications - The article suggests that a potential easing of monetary policy could enhance liquidity in global capital markets, benefiting various asset classes including equities and precious metals [12]. - The dynamics of the Fed's policy decisions are expected to create higher volatility in the markets, necessitating flexible asset allocation strategies [13].