刚刚！美股，重大警告！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in average effective tariff rates in the U.S., reaching 18.3%, the highest in 91 years, and its potential impact on consumer prices and the economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Rates and Economic Impact - As of July 31, the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is 18.3%, marking the highest level since 1934 [2]. - The tariff policy is projected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [2]. - Consumers may face a 40% increase in shoe prices and a 38% increase in clothing prices in the short term, with long-term projections of a 19% increase for shoes and a 17% increase for clothing [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion, attributed to rising tariff concerns and poor employment reports [1][5]. - Analysts predict that the additional tariffs, combined with weak employment data, may lead to further declines in the S&P 500 index in August [3]. Group 3: Export License Delays - The U.S. export licensing agency is reportedly near paralysis due to internal chaos, resulting in thousands of export license applications being stalled, the worst backlog in over 30 years [6]. - Delays in license approvals are putting U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage globally and raising concerns among businesses seeking overseas sales opportunities [6]. Group 4: International Trade Relations - The U.S. has imposed new tariffs on 69 trading partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, affecting various countries differently [4][5]. - Despite threats from the U.S. regarding oil imports from Russia, India has not altered its purchasing strategy, continuing to buy Russian oil [7].