中外资机构：中国权益资产有望跑赢海外市场

Core Viewpoint - Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [22]. Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [11]. - The U.S. tariff policy is likely to slow global trade flows, reduce investment and consumption growth, and reshape global supply chains, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" and "multilateralization" of trade among non-U.S. economies [11]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged as long as the U.S. economy and labor market remain robust, with market expectations for rate cuts cooling down [14]. - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times by June next year, totaling 100 basis points [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to increase their allocation to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus plan [20]. - A focus on Chinese A-shares and H-shares is recommended, as they are likely to attract international capital inflows due to policy support and improving fundamentals [20]. Group 4: Sector Focus in China - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technology events [23]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is projected to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [23].