再现“最热7月”！滚滚热浪会加重今夏日本的大米危机吗？

Core Viewpoint - The extreme heat in Japan this summer is exacerbating the ongoing rice crisis, with significant price increases expected due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields [3][4][7]. Weather Impact - July 2023 was the hottest month on record in Japan, with an average temperature 2.89 degrees Celsius above normal, and multiple locations recording temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius [4][5]. - The extreme heat has led to increased instances of heat-related illnesses, with a rising number of deaths attributed to heatstroke over recent years [5]. Rice Price Trends - The price of rice in Japan has surged, with a 5-kilogram bag reaching prices between 4268 and 4285 yen (approximately 213 to 214 RMB), more than double the price from the previous year [7]. - Despite a recent decline in average rice prices to 3432 yen (approximately 166.43 RMB) per 5 kilograms, prices remain elevated compared to previous years [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Japan's rice demand for the year was 711 million tons, exceeding previous government forecasts by 380,000 tons, while the projected rice production for 2024 is only 679 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance [8]. - The Japanese government has released 360,000 tons of reserve rice to stabilize prices, selling it at half the current market price [7]. Economic Implications - The Bank of Japan has raised its inflation forecast, with core consumer price index (CPI) expected to reach 2.7% by March 2026, driven largely by rising food prices, particularly rice [9]. - The persistent inflationary pressure is prompting the Bank of Japan to reconsider its monetary policy to mitigate the economic impact of rising prices [9].