债券利息收入恢复征税，更多是一次性冲击和结构性影响

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustment by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to reinstate VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8 is expected to have a significant impact on institutional behavior and the bond market dynamics, leading to a widening spread between new and old bonds [3][4][7]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - Starting August 8, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, with a rate of 6% for banks and 3% for asset management products. Existing bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until maturity [3][4][6]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the bond market reacted with a quick rise in yields, followed by a sharp decline, reflecting mixed investor sentiment regarding the tax implications [5][8]. Institutional Impact - Financial institutions, particularly banks, are expected to adjust their investment strategies in response to the new tax regime. The certainty of tax liabilities on interest income may lead banks to increase their external investment scale to mitigate the impact on returns [11][12]. Tax Revenue Projections - The tax adjustments are projected to generate additional tax revenue of approximately 321 billion, 648 billion, and 988 billion from 2025 to 2027, respectively. In a steady state, the annual tax revenue could reach about 208.6 billion if the current bond stock is taxed [9][10]. Spread Dynamics - The policy is likely to create a widening spread between new and old bonds, as the new bonds will carry a tax burden that the older bonds do not. This could lead to a dual pricing mechanism in the market, with institutions favoring older bonds to avoid the new tax implications [10][13][14]. Long-term Market Trends - The tax changes may lead to a structural shift in the bond market, with funds potentially flowing towards credit assets and equities, as the attractiveness of taxable bonds diminishes. The overall impact on bond yields is expected to be limited, with estimates suggesting a yield impact of around 5 to 10 basis points [12][14].