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突发!全线大跌!
中国基金报·2025-08-04 13:59

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have experienced a significant decline, with Brent crude futures dropping by 2% to $68.28 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling by 2.33% to $65.76 per barrel [2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a strategic shift towards regaining market share [6]. - This decision indicates an early completion of the current phase of supply recovery, moving away from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement initiated in 2023 [6]. - The increase in production is expected to mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices, leading to expectations of a global supply surplus in the second half of the year [6]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs has maintained its oil price forecast, projecting an average price of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026 [6]. - The firm acknowledges increased risks to its baseline forecast due to potential supply disruptions from Russia and Iran, alongside declining oil demand risks stemming from U.S. tariffs and economic weakness [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ will likely keep its production quotas unchanged after September, as OECD commercial inventories are expected to rise and seasonal demand is projected to decline [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The oil market is currently characterized by a contradiction between rising supply expectations and stagnant demand growth, with geopolitical risks acting as key disruptors [7]. - Potential military escalations from the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict could heighten concerns over oil supply disruptions, leading to upward pressure on prices [7]. - However, if these geopolitical risks do not materialize, there may be short-term downward pressure on oil prices [7].