重启跌势！OPEC+或考虑新一轮石油增产

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decisions made by OPEC+ to increase oil production and the potential implications of U.S. tariffs on oil prices and supply dynamics in the global market [2][4][7]. OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the end of the current phase of production recovery [4]. - Since April, OPEC+ has increased production by a total of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, which accounts for about 2.4% of global demand [4]. - Despite the increase in production, oil prices have rebounded nearly 10% from their 2025 low in April, partly due to seasonal demand [5]. Economic and Tariff Concerns - The article highlights concerns regarding U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump on imports from various economies, which could impact global economic growth and energy demand [7]. - The IMF forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth from 3.3% last year to 3% by 2025, influenced by Trump's trade policies [7]. - Recent U.S. employment data showed a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls, raising concerns about future economic performance [7]. Secondary Tariff on Russian Oil - Investors are wary of potential U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, with a significant date being August 8, when Trump threatened to impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russian oil buyers [9]. - This could jeopardize approximately 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, leading to potential price increases due to supply constraints [9]. - India has been increasing its imports of Russian oil, but recent reports suggest a shift towards sourcing oil from the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East to mitigate risks associated with sanctions [9].