美债遭遇“史上最惨五年”

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from its historical low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, to nearly 400 basis points higher, marking the worst rolling five-year total return in recorded history for U.S. Treasuries [1][4]. Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached an unprecedented low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, which is the lowest since records began in 1790 [1]. - Since that low point, the yield has increased significantly, leading to a decline in bond prices due to the inverse relationship between yield and price [1]. - The rolling five-year nominal total return for 10-year U.S. Treasuries has only seen a few instances of negative returns in the past 230 years, with the current period being one of the worst [4][5]. Group 2 - The only periods with worse real returns (nominal returns adjusted for inflation) than the past five years were the 1790s, post-World War I, and the five years leading up to 1981 [5][6]. - The 1981-1986 period saw the second-best five-year rolling real return for 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with an annual return of approximately 20% [7]. - Current yields are around 4.25%, which is close to the long-term average, making it unlikely to replicate the historical performance seen in the early 1980s [7]. Group 3 - The past five years have been characterized by a correction of long-term overvaluation in the Treasury market, with current prices appearing closer to fair value [8]. - Despite the potential for positive real returns, future U.S. inflation rates may remain above the target level of 2%, suggesting that actual annual returns for 10-year Treasuries may struggle to exceed 1% [8].