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降息预期利好人民币、黄金
第一财经·2025-08-05 15:48

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant decline, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 104,000, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4][5][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The downward revision of employment data for May and June resulted in a total loss of 258,000 jobs, marking the largest two-month downward adjustment since 1968 outside of recession periods [5][6]. - The weak employment figures have led to a consensus among institutions that the U.S. economy is currently growing below its potential trend [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the poor employment report, the stock market only experienced a one-day pullback due to strong earnings reports from major tech companies, which boosted confidence in future market performance [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each from September to the end of the year, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut if August employment data worsens [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Gold Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell back to the 98 range following the non-farm report, with expectations of continued weakness due to anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11][12]. - Gold prices have been positively influenced by the weak employment data, rising to around $3,400 per ounce, with expectations for further increases as central banks continue to buy gold [14][15].