【乘联分会论坛】2025年全年销量预测:乘用车零售增长6%、出口增长14%、新能源批发增长27%

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive trajectory of China's automotive market in the first half of 2025, driven by government policies and consumer demand, while also acknowledging the challenges posed by competition and external uncertainties [2][3]. Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth reached 5.3%, indicating a stable economic environment that supports the automotive market [2]. - The automotive market experienced a retail growth of 10.8% for passenger vehicles and 33.3% for new energy vehicles from January to June [2]. Market Predictions - The Passenger Car Association predicts the following for 2025: - Retail sales of passenger cars to reach 24.35 million units, a 6% increase, with an upward revision of 300,000 units from previous forecasts [2]. - Exports of passenger cars to hit 5.46 million units, a 14% increase, with a revision of 160,000 units from earlier estimates [2]. - Wholesale of new energy passenger cars to reach 15.48 million units, a 27% increase, with a slight decrease in forecast from June [2]. - Total automotive wholesale to be 34.04 million units, an 8% increase, with a 5 percentage point increase from earlier predictions [2]. Market Dynamics - The automotive market is characterized by a "recovery growth, structural adjustment, and profit pressure" trajectory [2]. - The first half of 2025 saw a strong retail performance, with a cumulative retail of 10.91 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [6]. Production Insights - Passenger car production in June 2025 was 2.41 million units, a 13% year-on-year increase, but showed signs of slowing growth compared to earlier months [7][9]. - The production for the first half of 2025 totaled 13.24 million units, also reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [9]. Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, China exported 3.48 million vehicles, an 18% year-on-year increase, with June exports reaching 620,000 units, a 28% increase year-on-year [10]. - The export market has shown strong growth, with a notable increase in competitiveness of Chinese automotive products in international markets [9][10].