Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in sentiment towards gold, with institutions like Citigroup reversing their bearish outlook and raising gold price forecasts due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][4]. Group 1: Citigroup's Revised Gold Outlook - Citigroup has adjusted its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 per ounce to $3,500 per ounce, with the trading range revised from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 [2]. - The bank attributes this change to factors such as weak U.S. labor data, concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over 33%, contributing to a near doubling of gold prices in the second quarter of this year [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Demand - Strong investment demand, continuous purchases by central banks, and resilient jewelry demand are key drivers of the rising gold prices [6]. - In the second quarter, global gold demand reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from gold ETFs and bar and coin investments [16]. - Central banks added 166 tons of gold in the second quarter, maintaining high levels of gold purchases despite a slowdown in the pace of buying [16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data, which showed a significant drop in job growth, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,400 mark [10]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction is not solely based on future predictions but also on a retrospective reassessment of economic weakness over the past two months [11]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for multiple rate cuts this year is being closely monitored, with indications that if labor market weakness persists without inflationary pressures, more than two rate cuts may be necessary [14].
华尔街“黄金空头”罕见空翻多 金价或再创历史新高？
证券时报·2025-08-05 15:14