【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2025年7月30日-8月5日)

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - The production index was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [3][5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [5] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, and the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [5] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand, particularly in the construction sector, which saw a new orders index of 42.7% [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index for July was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in business activities [7] Group 4: Service Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's service trade totaled 38,872.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, with exports at 16,883 billion yuan, up 15.0%, and imports at 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2% [4][9] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 15,025.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, with significant contributions from other business services and telecommunications [9] - Travel services experienced the fastest growth, reaching 10,802.9 billion yuan, up 12.3%, with exports growing by 68.7% [9]