对话启明创投周志峰：科技投资要追求「逐浪而行」，也要讲究「以史为鉴」

Core Viewpoint - Qiming Venture Partners is a leading investment institution in the AI sector in China and Asia, actively participating in the development of AI technologies and applications, and has hosted the WAIC forum for three consecutive years to discuss investment opportunities in AI [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Trends - Qiming Venture Partners has invested in over 100 AI projects, covering the entire AI industry chain, and has supported the rise of several industry benchmark companies [4]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of forming an independent investment methodology to navigate the noise in the early investment field, particularly addressing the challenge of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) [5][12]. - The current landscape of AI investment is characterized by a significant influx of new companies, particularly in the field of embodied intelligence, with over 100 new companies established in the past two years [11]. Group 2: Insights on AI Technologies - The firm believes that the development of embodied intelligence is closely linked to foundational large models, which provide the necessary architecture and intelligence for advancements in robotics [10][11]. - The competitive landscape for large models is dynamic, with no clear long-term leaders emerging, as any model's competitive advantage is expected to last no more than three months [23][24]. - The firm predicts that the evaluation of large model companies will shift from technical characteristics to application implementation and revenue scale in the coming years [6][20]. Group 3: Commercialization and Future Outlook - The firm anticipates that 2023 will be a pivotal year for the commercialization of humanoid robots, with expectations of significant orders and deployments in various commercial scenarios [15]. - Challenges remain in the commercialization of humanoid robots, including matching human efficiency and the need for high-quality training data [16][17]. - The firm sees potential for "super AI applications" to emerge as model capabilities improve and costs decrease, making large-scale user adoption feasible [27][28]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Predictions - Qiming Venture Partners emphasizes the importance of understanding historical technological trends, asserting that current innovations are evolutionary rather than revolutionary [40]. - The firm believes that the AI era's pricing models will not differ significantly from existing models, focusing on delivering user value [33]. - The firm is cautious about the potential for market bubbles in the AI sector, likening it to the natural occurrence of foam in beer, where a portion of the market may be inflated without lasting value [19].