挺得住！欧洲银行业最新压力测试结果出炉

Core Viewpoint - The European Banking Authority (EBA) released the 2025 stress test results, indicating that the EU banking sector demonstrates strong resilience and capital strength even under extreme economic recession scenarios [1][2]. Group 1: Stress Test Overview - The stress test covered 64 banks from 17 EU and European Economic Area (EEA) countries, representing nearly 75% of the EU banking sector's assets [2]. - The simulated scenario included heightened geopolitical tensions, increased trade fragmentation, and persistent supply shocks, leading to a significant deterioration in the global macro-financial environment [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Under the adverse scenario, the EU's real GDP is projected to decline by 6.3% from the starting point in 2024 to the end of the stress test period in 2027, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 5.8 percentage points [4]. - The EBA reported that despite an overall loss of €547 billion for the EU banking sector, banks maintained a "strong" capital position, reflecting the resilience built over recent years [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Capital Adequacy - The EU banks exhibited strong profitability during the testing period, which helped absorb some of the losses from deteriorating investment portfolios [5]. - By the end of 2027, the core Tier 1 capital ratio for the participating banks is expected to remain above 12%, although it will decrease by 370 basis points from the baseline level [5]. Group 4: Lending Capacity - Even in a more adverse economic and financial environment, EU banks are capable of continuing to provide loans to households and businesses during crises triggered by geopolitical tensions [6]. - The European banking sector showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising interest rates, economic recovery, and strategic adjustments by banks [6]. Group 5: Future Improvements - The EBA emphasized the need for banks to enhance their statistical capabilities to better manage potential vulnerabilities in their investment portfolios [7]. - The report highlighted that while the EU banking sector's performance in the 2025 stress test is reassuring, maintaining adequate capital remains crucial to support the economy during adverse conditions and to avoid becoming a source of risk during crises [7].