第一财经·2025-08-07 02:44Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the recent rumors regarding price increases of infant formula following the announcement of national childcare subsidies, clarifying that major companies in the dairy industry have not raised prices due to market conditions [3][4]. Industry Analysis - The domestic infant formula market is experiencing oversupply and intensified competition due to a continuous decline in newborn population, which does not support price increases [4][7]. - The total number of children aged 0-3 in China has decreased from 50.1 million in 2018 to 28.5 million in 2023, contributing to market contraction [7]. - Despite a slight rebound in birth rates in 2024, the overall downward trend in the market is expected to persist in the short term [8]. Company Responses - Major companies such as Yili (伊利股份), China Feihe (中国飞鹤), and Beingmate (贝因美) have publicly stated that they have not increased prices for their infant formula products [4][5]. - Beingmate specifically urged consumers not to believe or spread rumors about price hikes [4]. Market Trends - A survey indicated that approximately 70% of baby store owners reported no price increases in infant formula, while about 30% noted price adjustments unrelated to childcare subsidies, primarily due to promotional strategies [8]. - Since 2024, the infant formula industry has seen some sales recovery, attributed to both the rebound in newborn numbers and the restoration of market order after a prolonged price war among brands [8].