硅料价格回升见顶，仍待传闻“收储方案”落地

Core Viewpoint - The current inability of polysilicon prices to continue rising is primarily due to pressure in the supply chain, with downstream companies having limited capacity to accept high-priced resources [1][3]. Price Trends - After a month of continuous recovery, polysilicon prices have stabilized between 45,000 yuan/ton and 49,000 yuan/ton, with transactions beginning to occur [2]. - Prior to the price increase on July 2, polysilicon was priced around 30,000 yuan/ton to 36,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon futures saw a significant rise, reaching 54,705 yuan/ton on July 30 before dropping back to around 50,000 yuan/ton [2]. Regulatory Environment - The recent price increase in polysilicon is linked to regulatory efforts aimed at curbing low-price disorderly competition and promoting rational pricing [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated measures to revise pricing laws and conduct cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition [2]. Cost Structure - Major polysilicon producers have disclosed their cash and full costs, with the lowest reported cost being 27,070 yuan/ton by GCL-Poly Energy [2]. Downstream Impact - The component segment has attempted to raise prices but has faced challenges, with current component prices around 0.665 yuan/W to 0.707 yuan/W, reflecting only a slight increase from July [4]. - Each watt of component requires approximately 2 grams of polysilicon, meaning a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in polysilicon price raises component costs by about 0.1 yuan/W [4]. Investment Returns - The decline in investment returns for photovoltaic power stations is a key reason for the difficulty in raising component prices [5]. - The implementation of the "136 Document" by the National Development and Reform Commission has set mechanisms for market pricing of renewable energy, impacting profitability [5][6]. Installation Trends - The uncertainty in returns has led to a significant drop in new installations, with June seeing a 38% year-on-year decline and an 85% month-on-month decline in new installations [7]. Supply Chain Developments - Despite price stagnation, polysilicon production is increasing, particularly in regions with low energy costs [9]. - The southwestern region, benefiting from low water electricity prices, has seen some polysilicon production capacity resume [10]. Storage Plans - There are ongoing discussions about a polysilicon storage plan, which aims to establish storage enterprises and manage production capacity effectively [10]. - The proposed plan includes a storage capacity of 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, with a target to maintain around 70% operational capacity [10].