150亿美元！特朗普关税冲击企业盈利，机构预警美股短期压力

Core Viewpoint - The impact of President Trump's tariff policies on corporate operations is becoming increasingly evident, with many companies reporting rising raw material costs and declining demand, leading to negative profit implications [3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Companies - Global companies are expected to face a profit impact of approximately $15 billion in 2025 due to trade policies, primarily affecting the industrial, manufacturing, and automotive sectors, while financial and technology sectors are less impacted [5]. - Caterpillar reported a 0.7% decline in Q2 revenue, with a 6.5% increase in commodity costs, indicating that tariffs may pose a greater challenge to profitability in the second half of 2025 [5]. - Ford's Q2 revenue grew by 5% to $50.2 billion, but adjusted EBIT fell to $2.1 billion from $2.8 billion year-on-year, with an estimated net tariff impact of about $2 billion for the fiscal year [5]. - Molson Coors anticipates a cost increase of $20 million to $35 million in the second half of the year due to rising aluminum prices from tariffs, which doubled from 25% to 50% [6]. - Marriott International lowered its 2025 forecast due to weak travel demand, while Archer Daniels Midland reported its lowest profit in five years, highlighting the uncertainty caused by tariffs [7]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Future Outlook - Despite ongoing trade tensions, the market has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rising over 30% since April, driven by strong demand in artificial intelligence [9]. - Among the 370 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 80.3% exceeded analyst expectations, with an earnings growth rate of 11.9% [9]. - Analysts warn of a potential market correction of 7% to 15% between September and October due to slowing growth and rising inflation, but maintain a long-term optimistic outlook [9][10]. - Companies are adapting to tariff challenges by passing some costs onto consumers, with S&P profit margins hovering near historical highs, although a decline in margins is anticipated in the coming quarters [10].