聚焦全球能源 | 石油市场的供应过剩将持续至2026年

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is expected to face oversupply and rising inventories until 2026, with only modest demand growth, exacerbated by the U.S. government's preference for low oil prices, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural oversupply in the oil market is projected to persist until 2026, with OPEC+ gradually exiting previous production cuts and non-OPEC+ countries maintaining stable output [4]. - The average daily oversupply in the market is expected to exceed 1 million barrels by Q4 2025, with global inventories continuing to rise unless OPEC adjusts its strategy [4][10]. - Geopolitical risks, such as supply disruptions from Libya or Iran, will have limited impact due to ample inventories and idle capacity providing a buffer [4]. Group 2: U.S. Energy Policy Impact - The U.S. government's energy policy prioritizes lowering consumer costs over upstream industry profits, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the oil market [6]. - The U.S. has urged OPEC+ to increase production and has shown reluctance to intervene in the oil market unless a price collapse is imminent [6]. - The slow action of the Trump administration in replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reflects a lack of urgency regarding oil price issues [6]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - A weak global macroeconomic environment continues to suppress oil demand, with the IMF lowering the 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.8%, below historical trends [8]. - U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, with a projected annual growth rate of only 1.0%, significantly lower than the 2.5% growth in 2024 [8]. - Economic weakness may adversely affect oil-dependent sectors such as freight and automotive, although demand in emerging markets is still growing [8]. Group 4: Inventory Projections - Global oil and refined product inventories are expected to continue rising, indicating oversupply from Q4 2025 to 2026 [10]. - Following a reduction in inventories during 2021-2022, the anticipated supply growth will outpace demand, leading to increased inventories [10]. - OECD commercial inventories are currently near the five-year average but are expected to rise further, reflecting ample supply and weak consumption [10].