稀土价格高企，中国放宽管制也未缓解

Core Viewpoint - The prices of rare earth elements, particularly terbium, have reached record highs, with significant implications for industries reliant on these materials, such as electric vehicles and wind power generation [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Export Controls - Terbium reached a new high price in July, indicating ongoing supply constraints despite discussions of easing export controls by China [2][4]. - As of July 31, the price of dysprosium was $805 per kilogram, approximately three times higher than pre-control levels, while terbium peaked at $3,150 per kilogram, the highest since May 2015 [4]. - China's customs data for June showed nearly zero exports of dysprosium-related products, with terbium-related exports down by 90% compared to March, leading to production halts in some automotive sectors in Europe and Japan [6]. Group 2: Demand and Future Projections - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting that by 2050, the demand for rare earth elements used in magnets will be 2.2 times that of 2024 under net-zero emissions scenarios [6]. - Efforts are underway in the U.S. and Japan to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies, with MP Materials partnering with the U.S. Department of Defense, which is expected to acquire a 15% stake in the company [6]. Group 3: Supply Diversification Efforts - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has highlighted the need for diversification in supply sources, not just for rare earths but for other minerals as well [7]. - Japan is exploring projects to develop heavy rare earths outside of China, but challenges remain due to high costs associated with securing alternative production sites [7]. - Despite efforts to establish production outside of China, experts believe that China's dominance in high-value rare earth mining will not be easily disrupted [7].