英国央行宣布降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle and the lowest level in over two years, in response to economic slowdown and rising unemployment while still monitoring inflation above target levels [3][4]. Economic Context - The UK economy showed signs of contraction in spring 2025, with April and May experiencing month-on-month declines of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, up from approximately 3.8% a year ago, indicating a shift from an overheated job market to a weakening one [7]. - Inflation, while down from a peak of over 11% in October 2022, remains at about 3.6%, significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2% [8]. Monetary Policy Committee Dynamics - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) experienced a split vote during the recent meeting, with 4 members supporting a rate hold, 4 in favor of a 25 basis point cut, and 1 member advocating for a 50 basis point cut [5]. - The voting outcome reflects the economic dilemma faced by the MPC, balancing weak growth and rising unemployment against persistent inflation [6]. Future Outlook - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of England will maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy in the coming months, with a 70% probability of another 25 basis point cut by December [10]. - Analysts predict that if the Bank continues to cut rates by 25 basis points at each meeting, the benchmark rate could drop to 3.25% by early 2026, marking the longest and least aggressive rate-cutting cycle since World War II [10]. - Some analysts believe that the recent cut may be the last for a while due to persistent inflation concerns, indicating a potential pause in further easing [10].