英国央行：降息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fifth rate cut in the current cycle, amidst a divided policy meeting [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut rates was reached after a split vote of 5 to 4, the first time since the Bank gained monetary policy decision-making authority in 1998 [3]. - Four members, including Governor Bailey, supported the 25 basis point cut, while one member initially favored a 50 basis point cut but ultimately agreed to the smaller reduction due to the voting deadlock [3]. - Four members, including the Deputy Governor and Chief Economist, opposed the rate cut, indicating a significant division within the committee [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The decision reflects a conflict between rising inflation and a weak labor market, raising concerns about potential "stagflation" in the UK [6]. - The Bank of England noted an increase in inflation risks since May, particularly due to rising food prices, with inflation expected to reach 4% in September, surpassing the previous peak forecast of 3.7% [6]. - Despite a baseline expectation for inflation to decline, the committee warned that temporary inflation increases could exert upward pressure on wages and pricing [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank indicated that the UK's potential GDP growth remains subdued, with ongoing domestic and geopolitical risks to economic activity [6]. - There is a consensus among committee members that consumer spending faces downward risks, while savings rates may increase as households adopt more precautionary saving behaviors [6]. - Future decisions on reducing policy tightening will depend on whether deflationary pressures continue to ease [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, and UK government bond yields experienced a slight increase [7]. - The Bank also warned of signs of pressure in the long-term bond market ahead of the annual decision on quantitative tightening in September, suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of long-term bond sales [9].